Indian Agro Warning - Technical Analysis



Based on global Agro prices for the last 2 years I have been making a  bullish case for Indian Agro and they did rally for a while, but recently there were breaking down and so it takes me to the NCDEX, Dhaanya futures index. This is a index of Agro prices that they created and the weights are shown below.



I did post this index before with the wave 4 marking on it in 2013-2014 so wave 5 up was on. What is apparent now is that maybe wave 5 ended as an ending pattern. The index has been making lower tops and bottoms from the Point E and this is dangerous. Did India Agro just end a bubble in wave 5? Then we should be very careful on the bullish case for Agro here on. Also in this ending pattern C and E are almost equal. But this happens sometimes. Till we get a clear upward trend we should be aware that something is not right here and a deeper correction across the Indian Agro commodities is going on. If this wave count proves right then we can drop 33% on this index to the wave 4 low near 2000. In short avoid a bullish view on Indian Agro on NCDEX till a clear bottom is established.




Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

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