Currency technical analysis adam smith associates



Dollar Index
The dollar index sold off big today mostly on the GBP. The decline comes from a falling trendline of the tops made since Dec. This once again indicates that prices will test the lower end of the triangle as averages are already broken. This is near 98.60. However given the wave count I think this time this level should not hold, and we should break right below it and head to 96 near the wave 2 low.



US 10 Years T Notes
The bond market has been rallying as expected but the decline in US stocks so far feels muted. However this should change soon if the rally goes on in bonds. The pressure on US indices is visible but the decline so far is not as big as we saw in Europe. The US is waiting for its own triggers maybe. The bond rally does not appear complete in any respect so far and is likely to go on.


Euro
The Euro dollar remains bullish trend as today morning the wave iii high was surpassed. This makes the Euro rise impulsive and bullish. The next resistance is at 1.084 and then 1.094. 1.094 is the trendline of the highs.


USDINR
USDINR - is at 23.6% of wave 3 as shown. Near 64 this remains an important level from where wave 5 up can form. A falling dollar however can slow this down. But indications are that a bottom here would result in wave 5 up to 75 or 80 eventually




Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

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