Commodity Technical Analysis Adam Smith Associates



Zinc
The daily momentum for Zinc crossed over to a buy and at 38.2% retracement of last years entire rally this is a good level near 162 to call a bottom. If we are only bouncing back we go to 175, in case of an X wave we can retrace 61.8% up to 185 and best case scenario is that a new rally has started. Will take each case as it develops. But the trend could be up in the near term from 162.



Crude
The hourly chart of crude below shows a ending diagonal and breakout near term so maybe we finally have a bottom in place. 48.87 is the low made yesterday so if it holds we can say that wave b ended and wave c up to 57.50 can now start.



Silver
Silver broke the 17.65 low and am considering the same for Silver as well. Wave 2 may change to a larger flat pattern. A 3-3-5 correction from the Feb high means that we can go back to test the 16.78 low, near 61.8% of wave 1.


Nickel MCX
Nickel Mcx is falling in 5 waves in wave C. RSI at 28 yesterday was oversold. Lower end of the channel is near 580. At a minor degree one more push lower maybe possible to complete the 5 wave fall but we are close to completion. Once done then a bounce back can be anticipated back to the 20dma at least to start with which is close to 628



Aluminium MCX
Aluminium Mcx managed to hold the triple bottom support at 121 and closed above the 20/40 day averages. Breakout from the triangle is above 127. That would indicate new highs above 130.60 up to 135



Coffee
Coffee prices have been correcting in wave 2. I did think wave 2 wad done but apparently not. So we are no breaking down into wave C of 2. This is going to get deeper before wave 3 up can start. Support is at 118 from the trendline of the lows, also C=A is near 119. And we are at 131. So it could go down to 118 in the coming months to complete a 5 wave decline in wave C before we can start up again.










Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

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